← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Guida, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 35% | 30% | 2.78 | fair |
| AC Milan win | 33% | 35% | 2.96 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 32% | 35% | 3.06 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Suso · AC Milan |
| 13' | 🟨 | Andrea Conti · AC Milan |
| 16' | 🟨 | Lucas Paquetá · AC Milan |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Emiliano Moretti · Torino FC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Álex Berenguer · Torino FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · AC Milan |
| 81' | 🟨 | Gianluigi Donnarumma · AC Milan |
| 81' | 🟥 | Alessio Romagnoli · AC Milan |
| 83' | 🟨 | Vittorio Parigini · Torino FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 19 | Fouls | 23 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days |
| 482.00 |
| 543.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1679.97 | 1702.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.31 | -16.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.75 |
| league points | 53.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | 1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.21 |
| state index | 0.75 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |