← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 36% | 41% | 2.73 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 33% | 34% | 2.96 | fair |
| Spal win | 31% | 26% | 3.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Felipe · Spal |
| 36' | ⚽ | Felipe · Spal |
| 39' | 🟨 | Francesco Vicari · Spal |
| 53' | 🟨 | Andrea Petagna · Spal |
| 56' | ⚽ | Gianluca Lapadula · Genoa CFC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Genoa CFC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Esteban Rolón · Genoa CFC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Gianluca Lapadula · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days | 1609.00 | 148.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1642.32 | 1604.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 50.47 | -34.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 38.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.27 | 27.26 |
| state index | 0.71 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | -1.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |