← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 43% | 42% | 2.29 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 31% | 30% | 3.17 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Felipe Caicedo · SS Lazio |
| 19' | ⚽ | Felipe Caicedo · SS Lazio |
| 21' | 🟨 | Alex Ferrari · Sampdoria |
| 23' | 🟨 | Gastón Ramírez · Sampdoria |
| 32' | 🟨 | Francesco Acerbi · SS Lazio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gastón Ramírez · Sampdoria |
| 45' | 🟥 | Gastón Ramírez · Sampdoria |
| 57' | ⚽ | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 71' | 🟨 | Wallace · SS Lazio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Tonelli · Sampdoria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jacopo Sala · Sampdoria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicola Murru · Sampdoria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Senad Lulić · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 1031.00 | 1122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1600.78 | 1653.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.43 | -36.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.62 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 48.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.77 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 22.98 | 26.27 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |