← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Federico La Penna, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 73% | 74% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 15% | 5.46 | fair |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 9% | 10% | 10.94 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 45' | 🟨 | Paolo Ghiglione · Frosinone Calcio |
| 49' | ⚽ | Amin Younes · SSC Napoli |
| 79' | 🟨 | Mirko Gori · Frosinone Calcio |
| 79' | 🟨 | Fabián Ruiz · SSC Napoli |
| 81' | 🟨 | Federico Dionisi · Frosinone Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 13 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 25 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frosinone Calcio | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Benito Stirpe |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 148.00 | 362.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1479.65 | 1786.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.86 | -46.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| league points | 23.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 63.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | 1.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.34 |
| state index | -0.39 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.34 | 0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |