← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luca Sacchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 36% | 44% | 2.73 | value: +20% |
| Chievo win | 34% | 27% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Boštjan Cesar · Chievo |
| 37' | 🟨 | Mehdi Léris · Chievo |
| 38' | ⚽ | Juraj Kucka · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 66' | ⚽ | Riccardo Meggiorini · Chievo |
| 67' | 🟨 | Marcello Gazzola · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 72' | 🟨 | Federico Barba · Chievo |
| 80' | 🟨 | Bruno Alves · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gervinho · Parma Calcio 1913 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 178.00 | 878.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1407.11 | 1522.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.25 | -11.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | -1.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.60 |
| league points | 17.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 35.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.52 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -1.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| state index | -1.21 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | -1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |