← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Manganiello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 71% | 66% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 20% | 5.33 | value: +9% |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 11% | 13% | 9.04 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Federico Fazio · AS Roma |
| 8' | ⚽ | Javier Pastore · AS Roma |
| 36' | 🟨 | Luca Ceppitelli · Cagliari Calcio |
| 61' | 🟨 | Fabio Pisacane · Cagliari Calcio |
| 86' | ⚽ | Aleksandar Kolarov · AS Roma |
| 88' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Manolas · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
| 11 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 57.00 | 300.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1736.35 | 1530.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.89 | 36.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.79 |
| league points | 55.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.90 | — |
| state index | 0.54 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |