← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 56% | 59% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.01 | fair |
| Empoli win | 19% | 17% | 5.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Marko Pajač · Empoli |
| 17' | ⚽ | Marko Pajač · Empoli |
| 25' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Mbaye · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 35' | 🟨 | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 51' | ⚽ | Roberto Soriano · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 54' | 🟨 | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
| 78' | 🟨 | Roberto Soriano · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 82' | ⚽ | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nicola Sansone · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 13 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days |
| 116.00 |
| 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1519.36 | 1520.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.70 | -5.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 34.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |