← Serie A 2018-19 · Mon, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 44% | 58% | 2.20 | value: +28% |
| Atalanta BC win | 28% | 20% | 3.47 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · Atalanta BC |
| 28' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 29' | 🟨 | Elseid Hysaj · SSC Napoli |
| 69' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Atalanta BC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Kalidou Koulibaly · SSC Napoli |
| 80' | ⚽ | Mario Pašalić · Atalanta BC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Fabián Ruiz · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days |
| 356.00 |
| 1055.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1800.45 | 1714.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -49.09 | 4.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | 1.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| league points | 67.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.09 | 1.66 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.23 | 1.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.00 |
| squad age | 26.34 | 25.93 |
| state index | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.46 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |