← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca J. Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 42% | 44% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.28 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 28% | 27% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Rolando Mandragora · Udinese Calcio |
| 25' | 🟨 | Merih Demiral · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 28' | 🟨 | Sandro · Udinese Calcio |
| 31' | ⚽ | Stefano Sensi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jens Stryger Larsen · Udinese Calcio |
| 79' | 🟨 | Manuel Locatelli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 80' | ⚽ (og) | Pol Lirola · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days |
| 50.00 |
| 293.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1508.97 | 1538.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.76 | -12.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| league points | 32.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | 0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.69 | — |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.03 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |