← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 58% | 62% | 1.68 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.74 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 16% | 15% | 5.94 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 69' | ⚽ | Samu Castillejo · AC Milan |
| 82' | 🟨 | Lucas Biglia · AC Milan |
| 87' | ⚽ | Bruno Alves · Parma Calcio 1913 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Ennio Tardini |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 870.00 | 535.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 3.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1518.65 | 1706.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.82 | -24.93 |
| eye test v1 | -1.33 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| league points | 35.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.00 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.70 | 1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.64 |
| state index | -0.91 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |