← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Chiffi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 84% | 87% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 10% | 8.33 | fair |
| Chievo win | 5% | 4% | 20.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟥 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 40' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Chievo |
| 49' | ⚽ | Emanuel Vignato · Chievo |
| 51' | ⚽ | Përparim Hetemaj · Chievo |
| 55' | 🟨 | Nicola Rigoni · Chievo |
| 67' | ⚽ | Felipe Caicedo · SS Lazio |
| 73' | 🟨 | Assane Dioussé · Chievo |
| 90' | 🟥 | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Përparim Hetemaj · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 21 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 1114.00 | 170.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1671.14 | 1389.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.73 | -34.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.57 |
| league points | 52.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 37.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 0.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 6.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | -1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.27 | — |
| state index | 0.41 | -1.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |