← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 67% | 68% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 16% | 4.44 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 11% | 16% | 9.03 | value: +44% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Nikola Milenković · ACF Fiorentina |
| 37' | ⚽ | Alex Sandro · Juventus FC |
| 53' | ⚽ (og) | Germán Pezzella · Juventus FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Gerson · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 10 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 1754.00 | 19.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1938.24 | 1621.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.18 | -30.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 84.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.63 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.04 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.47 | — |
| state index | 0.98 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |