← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Guida, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 53% | 53% | 1.82 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.02 | value: +4% |
| AS Roma win | 22% | 21% | 4.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 61' | ⚽ | Ivan Perisic · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 62' | 🟨 | Matías Vecino · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 76' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 84' | 🟨 | Nicolò Zaniolo · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Internazionale Milano | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 688.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1736.98 | 1734.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.67 | -22.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| league points | 60.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.97 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.44 | 25.37 |
| state index | 0.93 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.18 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |