← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 36% | 31% | 2.71 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 37% | 3.04 | value: +12% |
| Genoa CFC win | 32% | 32% | 3.06 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Lukas Lerager · Genoa CFC |
| 20' | 🟨 | Nicolas N'Koulou · Torino FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Esteban Rolón · Genoa CFC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Miguel Veloso · Genoa CFC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Cristian Ansaldi · Torino FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Emiliano Moretti · Torino FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Daniele Baselli · Torino FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Vittorio Parigini · Torino FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ivan Radovanović · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 21 | Fouls | 24 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 140.00 | 474.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1512.59 | 1672.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.02 | -17.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.84 |
| league points | 34.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.41 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.44 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |