← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 44% | 49% | 2.24 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.31 | fair |
| Spal win | 27% | 23% | 3.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Francesco Caputo · Empoli |
| 30' | 🟨 | Manuel Lazzari · Spal |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrea Petagna · Spal |
| 40' | 🟨 | Thiago Cionek · Spal |
| 44' | ⚽ | Sergio Floccari · Spal |
| 47' | ⚽ | Hamed Junior Traorè · Empoli |
| 52' | 🟨 | Hamed Junior Traorè · Empoli |
| 60' | ⚽ | Andrea Petagna · Spal |
| 62' | 🟨 | Andrea Petagna · Spal |
| 71' | 🟨 | Simone Missiroli · Spal |
| 76' | 🟨 | Matteo Brighi · Empoli |
| 82' | 🟨 | Alessandro Murgia · Spal |
| 88' | ⚽ | Mirco Antenucci · Spal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 50.00 | 1601.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1538.02 | 1540.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.69 | 48.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| league points | 29.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |