← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 43% | 50% | 2.27 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.33 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 28% | 22% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Nicola Murru · Sampdoria |
| 48' | 🟨 | Jacopo Sala · Sampdoria |
| 52' | 🟨 | Roberto Soriano · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 53' | 🟨 | Joachim Andersen · Sampdoria |
| 54' | ⚽ (og) | Lorenzo Tonelli · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 58' | 🟨 | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 67' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Tonelli · Sampdoria |
| 69' | ⚽ | Erick Pulgar · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 83' | ⚽ | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days | 109.00 | 1023.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1498.74 | 1621.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.88 | 19.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 31.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 22.98 |
| state index | 0.23 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |