← Serie A 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 73% | 69% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 21% | 5.49 | value: +16% |
| Udinese Calcio win | 9% | 10% | 10.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Felipe Caicedo · SS Lazio |
| 24' | ⚽ (og) | Sandro · SS Lazio |
| 28' | 🟨 | Luiz Felipe · SS Lazio |
| 78' | 🟨 | Lucas Leiva · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 1111.00 | 47.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1664.19 | 1515.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.72 | 23.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 49.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.27 | 25.69 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | -1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |