← Serie A 2018-19 · Mon, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Manganiello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 72% | 73% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 18% | 5.27 | fair |
| Empoli win | 10% | 8% | 9.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | José Luis Palomino · Atalanta BC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Cristian Dell'Orco · Empoli |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ismaël Bennacer · Empoli |
| 61' | 🟨 | Frédéric Veseli · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 32 | Shots | 2 |
| 18 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia |
| coach days |
| 1048.00 |
| 45.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1720.31 | 1531.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.79 | 10.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| league points | 52.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.34 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.93 | — |
| state index | 0.97 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |