← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 56% | 52% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 17% | 22% | 5.58 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Nicolò Barella · Cagliari Calcio |
| 2' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Torino FC |
| 20' | 🟨 | Paolo Faragò · Cagliari Calcio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Álex Berenguer · Torino FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Simone Padoin · Cagliari Calcio |
| 51' | 🟨 | Luca Pellegrini · Cagliari Calcio |
| 52' | ⚽ | Simone Zaza · Torino FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Fabio Pisacane · Cagliari Calcio |
| 73' | 🟥 | Simone Zaza · Torino FC |
| 75' | ⚽ | Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari Calcio |
| 82' | 🟨 | Luca Pellegrini · Cagliari Calcio |
| 82' | 🟥 | Luca Pellegrini · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolò Barella · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟥 | Nicolò Barella · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days |
| 468.00 |
| 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1678.40 | 1517.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.64 | 21.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.78 |
| league points | 49.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |