← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 41% | 46% | 2.36 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.14 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 28% | 25% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Grégoire Defrel · Sampdoria |
| 8' | 🟨 | Domenico Criscito · Genoa CFC |
| 30' | 🟨 | Karol Linetty · Sampdoria |
| 51' | 🟥 | Davide Biraschi · Genoa CFC |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 60' | 🟨 | Goran Pandev · Genoa CFC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Genoa CFC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Miguel Veloso · Genoa CFC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Lukas Lerager · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Manolo Gabbiadini · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 1017.00 | 134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1612.54 | 1521.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.57 | 0.94 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| league points | 45.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.59 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 22.98 | — |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |