← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 47% | 49% | 2.07 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.41 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 24% | 22% | 3.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Mitchell Dijks · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 73' | 🟨 | Luis Muriel · ACF Fiorentina |
| 76' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Palacio · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 83' | 🟨 | Federico Santander · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Veretout · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 13.00 | 103.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1626.06 | 1493.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.72 | 46.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 1.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| league points | 39.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |