← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Federico La Penna, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 73% | 72% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 13% | 5.35 | fair |
| Chievo win | 9% | 14% | 10.73 | value: +51% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Kalidou Koulibaly · SSC Napoli |
| 64' | ⚽ | Arkadiusz Milik · SSC Napoli |
| 81' | ⚽ | Kalidou Koulibaly · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | ⚽ | Boštjan Cesar · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 4 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days |
| 164.00 |
| 348.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 3.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1392.98 | 1809.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.81 | -21.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | 1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| league points | 14.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 64.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.45 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.17 | 2.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.34 |
| state index | -1.73 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | 1.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |