← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 39% | 64% | 2.50 | value: +59% ⚠ |
| Draw | 34% | 18% | 2.91 | fair |
| Spal win | 27% | 18% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Manuel Lazzari · Spal |
| 30' | ⚽ | Moise Kean · Juventus FC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | João Cancelo · Juventus FC |
| 49' | ⚽ | Kevin Bonifazi · Spal |
| 74' | 🟨 | Sergio Floccari · Spal |
| 74' | ⚽ | Sergio Floccari · Spal |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mohamed Fares · Spal |
| 87' | 🟨 | Simone Missiroli · Spal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francesco Vicari · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days | 1594.00 | 1747.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1522.26 | 1956.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.73 | -18.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.80 |
| league points | 32.00 | 84.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 2.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | 0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.47 |
| state index | -0.04 | 1.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |