← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 60% | 68% | 1.63 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.05 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 17% | 13% | 5.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Juan Jesus · AS Roma |
| 59' | 🟨 | Marco D'Alessandro · Udinese Calcio |
| 63' | 🟨 | Juan Musso · Udinese Calcio |
| 67' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 77' | 🟨 | William Troost-Ekong · Udinese Calcio |
| 81' | 🟨 | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days |
| 43.00 |
| 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1731.11 | 1519.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.32 | 25.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 51.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | -0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.76 | 25.69 |
| state index | 0.33 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | -1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |