← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 35% | 32% | 2.76 | fair |
| AC Milan win | 35% | 39% | 2.76 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Rômulo · SS Lazio |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
| 85' | 🟨 | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cristián Zapata · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 528.00 | 1107.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.11 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1698.73 | 1671.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.45 | 5.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | 0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| league points | 52.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.35 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.63 | 26.27 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |