← Serie A 2018-19 · Mon, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca J. Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 67% | 63% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.49 | fair |
| Chievo win | 11% | 16% | 8.48 | value: +34% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Marco Andreolli · Chievo |
| 26' | 🟨 | Mehdi Léris · Chievo |
| 34' | 🟨 | Lyanco · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 44' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Chievo |
| 49' | 🟨 | Nicola Rigoni · Chievo |
| 61' | 🟨 | Assane Dioussé · Chievo |
| 63' | 🟨 | Mariusz Stępiński · Chievo |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Erick Pulgar · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Erick Pulgar · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 73' | 🟨 | Mattia Bani · Chievo |
| 79' | 🟨 | Mattia Bani · Chievo |
| 79' | 🟥 | Mattia Bani · Chievo |
| 89' | ⚽ | Mitchell Dijks · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 4 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 22 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days |
| 97.00 |
| 158.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1482.86 | 1403.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.07 | -29.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 50.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.55 |
| league points | 27.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 0.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.07 | -1.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |