← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 38% | 43% | 2.54 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.11 | fair |
| Empoli win | 30% | 27% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Samir · Udinese Calcio |
| 11' | ⚽ | Francesco Caputo · Empoli |
| 14' | ⚽ | Rodrigo De Paul · Udinese Calcio |
| 18' | 🟨 | Marko Pajač · Empoli |
| 24' | ⚽ | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
| 39' | 🟨 | Domenico Maietta · Empoli |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Rodrigo De Paul · Udinese Calcio |
| 44' | 🟨 | Matías Silvestre · Empoli |
| 45' | ⚽ | Rolando Mandragora · Udinese Calcio |
| 58' | 🟨 | Marvin Zeegelaar · Udinese Calcio |
| 63' | 🟨 | Marvin Zeegelaar · Udinese Calcio |
| 63' | 🟥 | Marvin Zeegelaar · Udinese Calcio |
| 87' | 🟨 | Rolando Mandragora · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francesco Caputo · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days | 37.00 | 37.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1510.22 | 1541.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.22 | 18.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| league points | 29.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.94 | — |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.99 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |