← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 75% | 83% | 1.28 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 17% | 13% | 5.81 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 8% | 5% | 12.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Allan · SSC Napoli |
| 28' | 🟥 | Stefano Sturaro · Genoa CFC |
| 34' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 45' | ⚽ | Darko Lazović · Genoa CFC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Elseid Hysaj · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 10 | On target | 7 |
| 11 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days | 341.00 | 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.26 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1931.38 | 1612.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.32 | -11.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| league points | 63.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.61 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.24 | 24.60 |
| state index | 0.95 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.03 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |