← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 44% | 49% | 2.20 | value: +7% |
| Atalanta BC win | 28% | 24% | 3.48 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Pierluigi Gollini · Atalanta BC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · Atalanta BC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Matteo Politano · FC Internazionale Milano |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Internazionale Milano | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days |
| 675.00 |
| 1040.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1730.98 | 1718.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.23 | 29.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | 1.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| league points | 56.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.45 | 1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.60 |
| squad age | 26.44 | 25.93 |
| state index | 0.96 | 1.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |