← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 45% | 43% | 2.18 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.11 | fair |
| Spal win | 24% | 24% | 4.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Paolo Faragò · Cagliari Calcio |
| 18' | 🟨 | Luca Ceppitelli · Cagliari Calcio |
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Mirco Antenucci · Spal |
| 25' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Dickmann · Spal |
| 30' | 🟨 | Luca Cigarini · Cagliari Calcio |
| 56' | 🟨 | Felipe · Spal |
| 59' | 🟨 | Mohamed Fares · Spal |
| 60' | ⚽ | Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari Calcio |
| 68' | 🟨 | Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Cacciatore · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 4 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| coach days | 280.00 | 1588.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1508.55 | 1531.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.11 | 25.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| league points | 33.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |