← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 37% | 28% | 2.62 | fair |
| AS Roma win | 35% | 44% | 2.80 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Riccardo Saponara · Sampdoria |
| 41' | 🟨 | Patrik Schick · AS Roma |
| 43' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Kolarov · AS Roma |
| 75' | ⚽ | Daniele De Rossi · AS Roma |
| 88' | 🟨 | Manolo Gabbiadini · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.60 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days |
| 1009.00 |
| 36.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.30 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1621.37 | 1722.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.35 | -53.12 |
| eye test v1 | 1.07 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| league points | 45.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 22.98 | 26.56 |
| state index | 0.48 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |