← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 53% | 48% | 1.82 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.71 | value: +3% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 20% | 24% | 4.80 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Torino FC |
| 22' | 🟨 | Riccardo Gagliolo · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 50' | 🟨 | Marcello Gazzola · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 57' | 🟨 | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Cristian Ansaldi · Torino FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Simone Zaza · Torino FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Francisco Sierralta · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 86' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juraj Kucka · Parma Calcio 1913 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Ennio Tardini |
| coach days |
| 856.00 |
| 460.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1513.24 | 1681.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.91 | 2.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.85 |
| league points | 33.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.74 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |