← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 52% | 57% | 1.88 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.26 | fair |
| AC Milan win | 19% | 16% | 5.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Krzysztof Piątek · AC Milan |
| 41' | 🟨 | Federico Bernardeschi · Juventus FC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Mateo Musacchio · AC Milan |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Hakan Çalhanoğlu · AC Milan |
| 84' | ⚽ | Moise Kean · Juventus FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Mario Mandžukić · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 21 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1740.00 |
| 521.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1953.31 | 1701.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.07 | -21.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.80 |
| league points | 81.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.70 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | 1.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.34 | 25.61 |
| state index | 1.43 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |