← Serie A 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 44% | 46% | 2.22 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.31 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 27% | 23% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Bartosz Bereszyński · Sampdoria |
| 61' | 🟨 | Lorenzo De Silvestri · Torino FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Nicola Murru · Sampdoria |
| 83' | ⚽ | Manolo Gabbiadini · Sampdoria |
| 86' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Saša Lukić · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Manolo Gabbiadini · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days | 457.00 | 1006.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1674.37 | 1628.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.53 | 31.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | 1.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.59 |
| league points | 45.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.40 |
| squad age | — | 22.98 |
| state index | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |