← Serie A 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 48% | 45% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.67 | value: +13% |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 25% | 24% | 3.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Kolarov · AS Roma |
| 12' | ⚽ | Germán Pezzella · ACF Fiorentina |
| 14' | ⚽ | Nicolò Zaniolo · AS Roma |
| 51' | ⚽ | Gerson · ACF Fiorentina |
| 57' | ⚽ | Diego Perotti · AS Roma |
| 66' | 🟨 | Giovanni Simeone · ACF Fiorentina |
| 70' | 🟨 | Diego Perotti · AS Roma |
| 70' | 🟨 | Nikola Milenković · ACF Fiorentina |
| 71' | 🟨 | Rick Karsdorp · AS Roma |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jordan Veretout · ACF Fiorentina |
| 88' | 🟨 | Cristiano Biraghi · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days |
| 33.00 |
| 2.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1726.32 | 1637.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.58 | -25.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| league points | 47.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.11 | — |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |