← Serie A 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 50% | 46% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.57 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 22% | 28% | 4.35 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days |
| 123.00 |
| 671.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1525.34 | 1719.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.34 | -7.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| league points | 33.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 3.96 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.44 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |