← Serie A 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Manganiello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone Calcio win | 47% | 50% | 2.07 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.28 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 23% | 23% | 4.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Francisco Sierralta · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 12' | ⚽ | Andrea Pinamonti · Frosinone Calcio |
| 18' | ⚽ | Antonino Barillà · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 25' | 🟨 | Nicolò Brighenti · Frosinone Calcio |
| 27' | 🟨 | Luca Valzania · Frosinone Calcio |
| 41' | 🟨 | Marcello Gazzola · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 44' | 🟨 | Marco Capuano · Frosinone Calcio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Luca Valzania · Frosinone Calcio |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Fabio Ceravolo · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 59' | 🟨 | Fabio Ceravolo · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Massimo Gobbi · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniel Ciofani · Frosinone Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frosinone Calcio | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Benito Stirpe |
| coach days |
| 123.00 |
| 853.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1469.55 | 1523.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.79 | -17.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| league points | 17.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 0.59 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 6.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.87 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |