← Serie A 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 62% | 66% | 1.57 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.45 | value: +5% |
| Empoli win | 16% | 10% | 5.94 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Diego Farias · Empoli |
| 33' | 🟨 | Kalidou Koulibaly · SSC Napoli |
| 44' | ⚽ | Piotr Zieliński · SSC Napoli |
| 47' | 🟨 | Arkadiusz Milik · SSC Napoli |
| 50' | 🟨 | Hamed Junior Traorè · Empoli |
| 52' | ⚽ | Giovanni Di Lorenzo · Empoli |
| 60' | 🟨 | Marko Pajač · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days |
| 33.00 |
| 337.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 3.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1524.62 | 1849.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.07 | 2.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | 0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| league points | 25.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 3.96 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | 1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.34 |
| state index | -0.34 | 1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |