← Serie A 2018-19 · Tue, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 61% | 63% | 1.59 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.88 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 14% | 10% | 6.96 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | ⚽ | Krzysztof Piątek · AC Milan |
| 64' | ⚽ | Kevin Lasagna · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| coach days | 517.00 | 32.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1708.00 | 1503.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.25 | 25.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.67 |
| league points | 51.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 2.96 | 2.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.46 | -1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.29 | 26.09 |
| state index | 0.59 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.13 | -1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |