← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 44% | 41% | 2.23 | fair |
| AS Roma win | 29% | 30% | 3.39 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Arkadiusz Milik · SSC Napoli |
| 13' | 🟨 | Patrik Schick · AS Roma |
| 17' | 🟨 | Nikola Maksimović · SSC Napoli |
| 36' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Manolas · AS Roma |
| 37' | 🟨 | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 43' | 🟨 | Arkadiusz Milik · SSC Napoli |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Diego Perotti · AS Roma |
| 49' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 54' | ⚽ | Simone Verdi · SSC Napoli |
| 66' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Kolarov · AS Roma |
| 81' | ⚽ | Amin Younes · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 10 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days |
| 30.00 |
| 334.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 4.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1742.25 | 1833.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.53 | -22.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 49.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.73 |
| league points | 47.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | 1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.17 | 26.34 |
| state index | 0.43 | 0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |