← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Chiffi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 62% | 54% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 30% | 4.33 | value: +29% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 16% | 16% | 6.09 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Gervinho · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 24' | ⚽ | Mario Pašalić · Atalanta BC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Timothy Castagne · Atalanta BC |
| 75' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Atalanta BC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Matteo Scozzarella · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 11 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Ennio Tardini |
| coach days |
| 850.00 |
| 1033.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1533.52 | 1702.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.33 | -19.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| league points | 33.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.90 | 1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.93 |
| state index | -0.58 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |