← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 37% | 45% | 2.61 | value: +18% |
| SS Lazio win | 32% | 27% | 3.02 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Internazionale Milano | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| coach days | 668.00 | 1094.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| -0.20 |
| -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1732.32 | 1676.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.57 | 7.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 53.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.44 | 26.27 |
| state index | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |