β Serie A 2018-19 Β· Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spal win | 37% | 38% | 2.65 | fair |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 32% | 34% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | β½ | Francesco Vicari Β· Spal |
| 21' | π¨ | Luca Valzania Β· Frosinone Calcio |
| 46' | π¨ | Thiago Cionek Β· Spal |
| 59' | π¨ | Jasmin KurtiΔ Β· Spal |
| 74' | π¨ | Mattia Valoti Β· Spal |
| 84' | π¨ | Bartosz Salamon Β· Frosinone Calcio |
| 89' | π¨ | Federico Dionisi Β· Frosinone Calcio |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frosinone Calcio | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Benito Stirpe |
| coach days |
| 120.00 |
| 1581.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1480.51 | 1507.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.45 | -9.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 17.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.61 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.87 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |