← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 44% | 47% | 2.24 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.31 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 27% | 26% | 3.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · ACF Fiorentina |
| 34' | ⚽ | Daniele Baselli · Torino FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Daniele Baselli · Torino FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Simone Zaza · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days | 668.00 | 454.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1638.38 | 1673.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.41 | 15.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.81 |
| league points | 37.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 15.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |