← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Guida, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 44% | 49% | 2.22 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.37 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 27% | 25% | 3.58 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Filip Helander · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 29' | 🟨 | Merih Demiral · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 61' | 🟨 | Stefano Sensi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Erick Pulgar · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 86' | 🟨 | Mehdi Bourabia · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mattia Destro · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jérémie Boga · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mattia Destro · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days |
| 89.00 |
| 273.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1478.66 | 1535.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.35 | -33.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| league points | 24.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |