← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca J. Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 35% | 34% | 2.76 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 34% | 34% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Esteban Rolón · Genoa CFC |
| 4' | ⚽ | Stefano Okaka · Udinese Calcio |
| 33' | 🟨 | Jens Stryger Larsen · Udinese Calcio |
| 38' | 🟨 | Sandro · Udinese Calcio |
| 40' | 🟨 | Marvin Zeegelaar · Udinese Calcio |
| 42' | 🟨 | Domenico Criscito · Genoa CFC |
| 46' | 🟨 | Daniel Bessa · Genoa CFC |
| 61' | ⚽ | Rolando Mandragora · Udinese Calcio |
| 78' | 🟨 | Pedro Pereira · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.12 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days | 29.00 | 119.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1591.20 | 1639.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.25 | 26.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | — |
| league points | 25.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.09 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.39 | 26.18 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.24 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |