← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 39% | 41% | 2.53 | value: +3% |
| Sampdoria win | 32% | 27% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.27 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Grégoire Defrel · Sampdoria |
| 15' | 🟨 | Suso · AC Milan |
| 25' | 🟨 | Samu Castillejo · AC Milan |
| 37' | 🟨 | Ronaldo Vieira · Sampdoria |
| 65' | 🟨 | Tiemoué Bakayoko · AC Milan |
| 86' | 🟨 | Dennis Praet · Sampdoria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mateo Musacchio · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days |
| 1002.00 |
| 514.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 3.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1617.21 | 1719.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.59 | 21.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.96 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.84 |
| league points | 42.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | 1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 22.98 | 23.29 |
| state index | 0.49 | 0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |