← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 80% | 85% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 11% | 6.95 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 6% | 5% | 16.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Piotr Zieliński · SSC Napoli |
| 13' | 🟨 | Sandro · Udinese Calcio |
| 17' | ⚽ | Amin Younes · SSC Napoli |
| 26' | ⚽ | José Callejón · SSC Napoli |
| 30' | ⚽ | Kevin Lasagna · Udinese Calcio |
| 36' | ⚽ | Seko Fofana · Udinese Calcio |
| 57' | ⚽ | Arkadiusz Milik · SSC Napoli |
| 69' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 4 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.80 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days |
| 320.00 |
| 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.03 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1830.88 | 1491.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.72 | 12.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| league points | 57.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.11 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.24 | -1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.34 | 25.98 |
| state index | 0.91 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | -1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |