← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 76% | 70% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 21% | 6.04 | value: +25% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 8% | 9% | 11.74 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Adam Marušić · SS Lazio |
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
| 38' | ⚽ | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
| 44' | ⚽ | Senad Lulić · SS Lazio |
| 52' | 🟨 | Roberto Inglese · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 63' | 🟨 | Bruno Alves · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 77' | ⚽ | Mattia Sprocati · Parma Calcio 1913 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days |
| 1080.00 |
| 836.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 1.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1667.92 | 1542.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.29 | -15.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| league points | 42.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.27 | — |
| state index | 0.34 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |