← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 54% | 57% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.78 | fair |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 20% | 19% | 4.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Francesco Caputo · Empoli |
| 38' | ⚽ | Marko Pajač · Empoli |
| 68' | 🟨 | Luca Valzania · Frosinone Calcio |
| 70' | ⚽ | Luca Valzania · Frosinone Calcio |
| 75' | 🟨 | Edoardo Goldaniga · Frosinone Calcio |
| 78' | 🟨 | Manuel Pasqual · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matías Silvestre · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Afriyie Acquah · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bartłomiej Drągowski · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Frosinone Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 16.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 1.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1518.33 | 1487.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.58 | 5.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -1.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 67.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.74 |
| league points | 22.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | -1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |